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Week 4 NFLX – Thursday NFL Picks

The St. Louis Rams (3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS in 2007; 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS in pre-season), winners of two straight pre-season games, will try to chalk up their third in a row on Thursday night as they go across the Show-Me State to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in 2007; 1-2 SU & ATS in pre-season) in the pre-season finale for both squads, scheduled to kick off at 8 PM ET at Arrowhead…

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The Washington Redskins (9-7 SU, 7-7-2 ATS in 2007 regular season; 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in pre-season) will try to bounce back from getting bounced out of Carolina, as they play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5 SU & ATS in 2007 regular season; 1-2 SU & ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to kick off at 7 PM ET at FedEx Field (natural turf) in Landover, MD.

Thursday, August 28

BetUS NFL Betting Odds: WASHINGTON -3, Total 34

NOTABLE STAT: Jags were third in NFL in road rushing defense in 2007 (87.8 ypg)

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jags have played 11 overs in last 15 pre-season games

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Redskins are listed as a three-point favorite (at even money), with the total posted at 34 points.

Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* JAX has won seven of its last ten games SU

* JAX has covered eight of its last ten games

* JAX has played 11 of its last 12 games OVER the total

* WASH has won and covered four of its last five games SU

* WASH has won four of its last six home games SU

* WASH has played eight of its last 12 games OVER the total

Pre-Season trends:

* JAX has won eight of its last 11 pre-season games SU

* JAX has played 11 of its last 15 pre-season games OVER the total

* JAX has won five of its last seven pre-season home games SU

* WASH has lost ten of its last 16 pre-season games SU

The Redskins started the pre-season with a huge win over Indianapolis in the Hall of Fame Game, then, though they did not score much against the Bills and Jets, rolled up 341 and 359 yards in those games and got solid performances for the most part out of Jason Campbell and Todd Collins. In the next-to-last pre-season game, it is usually time to give the starters the most in the way of playing time. But it looked as if every member of the Redskins took the night off against Carolina.

Washington registered only 208 total yards and gave up 402 to the Panthers, who scored 31 points in the second quarter. Both of the running backs Carolina is counting on – D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart – hit the century mark, leading a ground attack that exceeded seven yards per carry. Washington lost three fumbles. And to add injury to insult, Jason Taylor suffered a sprained right knee and appears to be 50-50 to start the season opener. The result was a 47-3 drubbing that justified much embarrassment.

Because the offense was so pitiful, coach Jim Zorn is going to play his offensive starters, who should be in there for at least a couple of series. According to Campbell, “We know what we’re capable of as an offense, as a team, and we can’t start the season like that.”

Jacksonville, like Washington, played Saturday night and have a short week while traveling. The Jags beat Tampa Bay 23-17 but accumulated only 201 yards on offense. This is a team that can usually run the ball, but had only 79 total yards on the ground in the last two games. And there aren’t really any receivers who can stretch the field. Jack Del Rio will play the starts a bit on Saturday, but they will not play much.

With the Jags not gobbling up yards using their modus operandi, and Washington returning home after such a humiliation, I expect them, to seek and find redemption in this one. We will lay the points with the ‘Skins, the three-point favorite in the BetUS NFL pre-season betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: WASHINGTON -3 ***

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The last weekend of the NFL Pre-season usually is all about finding those third and fourth string players to round out your NFL offensive and defensive teams. The third and fourth string players will inevitably start on the special teams’ units.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7 SU & ATS in 2007 regular season; 2-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) will conclude what has been a tumultuous exhibition slate on Thursday night as they take on the Houston Texans (8-8 SU & ATS in 2007; 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set for an 8 PM ET kickoff at Reliant Stadium (natural turf) in Houston.

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The Dogs Are Out, By Big Al McMordie

It’s not your imagination: The Dogs have been barking loudly this NFL preseason. In Week 1 the dogs were 9-5-2 against the number, which is not unusual with the first look at all the teams. But Week 2 was even more extreme, with the underdogs going 11-4 ATS (with one game lined at PK’em).
Two of the biggest surprises were the Raiders and Dolphins covering (though not to me, as I had Miami as a big play). Oakland had to travel 3,000 miles to play at Tennessee and play the Titans, who have done well in the preseason under Jeff Fisher. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders rolling up 380 yards, as most of it was on the ground (224 yards). One plus is that young quarterback JaMarcus Russell’s mobility allowed him to use his feet to escape trouble and allow his receivers to break their routes to come back to the ball. That’s a plus in preseason against second stringers, but could be less so in the regular season against onrushing NFL linemen.

Miami used two quarterbacks in Week 2, newcomer Chad Pennington and rookie Chad Henne (from my alma mater, Michigan). Reports are that the coaches like the two Chads a lot and they’ve been getting most of the reps. Which means you’re likely to see them in Week 3, before teams generally play the backups in Week 4 to prevent injuries to key players.

The Dolphins were a dog at Jacksonville but controlled the game against the listless Jags. Henne was 17-of-26 for 133 yards while Pennington was 5-of-6 for 55 yards. Best yet: No turnovers! Miami’s three scoring drives totaled 13 minutes and 46 seconds.

This was another preseason example of a new coach having an edge. The Dolphins won as a dog for their new coach, while the Redskins, under new coach Jim Zorn, are now 3-0 after a 13-10 win at New York. First-year head coaches can have an edge in preseason as they want their team to play well and win, while more established coaches often care much less.

Based on the play of the starters in a 19-14 loss to the Dolphins, put Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio in the established category now, after another playoff appearance last season. Del Rio was 15-5 SU, 14-6 ATS in preseason play before this year. Now he’s 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS with two weak performances. The Jaguars trailed 19-0 at home and the frontline contributors didn’t play at the level of a team labeled a title contender.

“It’s not near good enough, and it’s not acceptable,” Del Rio said. “I like for them to feel this because this is what happens when you don’t execute.” Expecting an improvement from their preseason-opening win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Jaguars watched the opposite occur as the starters struggled on both sides of the ball through the entire first half. The first-team offense failed to score and produced just 87 yards.

Meanwhile, the defense allowed Miami running back Ricky Williams to run roughshod (43 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts) while it gave up 98 yards through the air to newly acquired Dolphin quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington finished with a 104.9 QB rating while leading Miami to two second-quarter scores. The Dolphins’ starters outgained the Jaguars’ frontline players 179-87.
“Sloppy half. We didn’t move the ball,” Del Rio said. “We got totally stuffed offensively. Defensively, we never really slowed them down.”

Perhaps more disturbing was the lackluster play of the Jaguars’ defensive front seven. Jaguars rookie defensive end Quentin Groves saw significant playing time, but he struggled to get to the quarterback and couldn’t consistently stop the run.

“We need to play better, that is the bottom line,” Jaguars defensive end Paul Spicer said. “That first half was football, but it sure wasn’t Jaguar football.” They get another chance this weekend at Tampa Bay, a team on a short week.

Another dog that has quietly impressed this preseason is Houston. The Texans had all kinds of injuries last season under second-year head coach Gary Kubiak, yet finished 8-8. He’s building a decent team, one that has balance on offense (he was the offensive coordinator in Denver under Mike Shanahan), plus an interesting young defensive front.

The Texans are now 2-0 SU/1-0-1 ATS this preseason after winning at New Orleans, 31-27. The offense rolled up 405 yards as Matt Schaub was absolutely brilliant, 14 for 16 with two touchdown passes, and a dazzling passer rating of 154.9. By the way, the Texans are 5-1 over the total their last 6 preseason games.

The Seahawks won as a home dog against the Bears, 29-26 in OT, but what really stood out was the terrible play (again) of the Chicago offense. The Seahawks had the edge in yards 431-205. For the second straight week, QB Rex Grossman and the first team offense played the first half. Yet, they have scored 3 and 5 points in those two halves (and the safety was not by the offense).

Grossman didn’t steer the Bears to a scoring drive Saturday, completing 9 of 15 passes for 74 yards and one interception for a passer rating of 44.9. “We didn’t play real smart,” Grossman said. The Bears have a short week before kicking off this weekend, on Thursday, at home against the 49ers. Week 3 is when the starters generally play the most. It’s a good time to fine tune offenses, but just remember that the dogs have been the story this preseason. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

NFL Preseason Action with San Fran at Chicago

The third week of the NFL pre-season kicks off tonight when the (1-1) San Francisco 49ers invade the “Windy City” to take on the (0-2) Chicago Bears in a Week 3 NFL pre-season football betting clash; kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 ET.

This game will mark San Francisco’s first road game of the season, while the Bears get to play their second and final pre-season home game at Soldier Field.

San Francisco bounced back from a poor Week 1 road effort at Oakland with a dominating performance last week at home against the Green Bay Packers. The NFL betting odds closed with the 49ers a one-point home favorite with the ‘total’ set at 34.5.

The 49ers blew the football betting line away covering the one-point line with ease in the 34-6 victory, and the combined 40-points sent over bettors home happy. QB J.T. O’Sullivan looked to have separated himself in the Niners QB derby by throwing for 154 yards on 8-of-17 passing with a TD:INT ratio of 1:1. The defense also helped the team win the turnover battle by recovering three Green Bay fumbles.

Chicago lost its home opener against Kansas City costing football bettors laying the points a winning ticket. The offense didn’t look much better last week in Seattle, but the defense and special teams were phenomenal accounting for 19 of their 26 overall points. The NFL betting line closed with Chicago a three-point road favorite with the ‘total’ set at 35.

Only 14 combined points were scored at the half, but the scoring took off in the second half due to a number of big plays, and the over cashed for the second week in a row when Seattle won by a 29-26 final count in overtime. Chicago announced that Kyle Orton will be their #1 QB to start the regular season, so expect him to get a bulk of the snaps this evening.

The Bears currently sit as 4.5-point home favorites in tonight’s NFL betting affair, with the ‘total’ set at 37 over -110. Sports-gambling Sportsbook offers all NFL pre-season betting odds be it spread, total, or $$$-line, so be sure to login to your account and get your wagers down before tonight’s opening kick.”